灰色层次结构模型在故障树分析中的应用

故障树分析技术对于复杂系统的故障诊断具有重要应用价值,提出把故障树看作2层灰色结构,通过建立灰色层次结构模型,给出判断各种故障模式发生可能性大小的一种通用方法.将其应用于压力容器爆炸事故的故障树分析,并取得了与实际情况吻合的满意结果.该方法为了解事故影响因素重要程度、控制事故发生和改进系统可靠性提供依据.     

连续退火机组氮气窒息事故分析及预防对策

介绍了某冷轧厂连续退火机组发生的一起氮气窒息事故,分析了水淬槽氮气产生的机理、事故发生的原因,提出了预防氮气窒息事故的对策措施.     

广西乡村旅游发展的SWOT分析

运用SWOT分析方法,认为广西乡村旅游资源丰富,乡村旅游的发展正面临着良好的发展机遇,同时必须应对日益剧烈的市场竞争和由于开发不当而造成的资源破坏与特色退化,处理好各乡村旅游利益主体之间的利益平衡。从整体而言,广西的乡村旅游还处于探索和参与阶段。乡村旅游的可持续发展有待于政府、专家学者、旅游开发经营者和乡村旅游者的共同努力。     

Demonstrating Floodplain Uncertainty Using Flood Probability Maps1

Abstract: The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood maps depict the 100‐year recurrence interval floodplain boundary as a single line. However, because of natural variability and model uncertainty, no floodplain extents can be accurately defined by a single line. This article presents a new approach to floodplain mapping that takes advantage of accepted methodologies in hydrologic and hydraulic analysis while including the effects of uncertainty. In this approach, the extents of computed floodplain boundaries are defined as a continuous map of flood probabilities, rather than as a single line. Engineers and planners can use these flood probability maps for viewing the uncertainty of a floodplain boundary at any recurrence interval. Such a flood probability map is a useful tool for visualizing the uncertainty of a floodplain boundary and represents greater honesty in engineering technologies that are used for flood mapping. While institutional barriers may prevent adoption of such definitions for use in graduated flood insurance rates (as most other insurance industries use to account for relative risks), the methods open the door technically to such a reality.     

Mapping Three‐Dimensional Water‐Quality Data in the Chesapeake Bay Using Geostatistics1

Abstract:  Data interpretation and visualization software tools with geostatistical capabilities were adapted, customized, and tested to assist the Chesapeake Bay Program in improving its water‐quality modeling protocols. Tools were required to interpolate, map, and visualize three‐dimensional (3D) water‐quality data, with the capability to determine estimation errors. Components of the software, originally developed for ground‐water modeling, were customized for application in estuaries. Additional software components were developed for retrieval, and for pre‐ and post‐ processing of data. The Chesapeake Bay Program uses the 3D mapped data for input to the Bay water‐quality model that projects the future health of the Bay and its tidal tributary system. In determining water‐quality attainment criteria, 3D kriging estimation errors are needed as a statistical measure of uncertainty. Furthermore, given the high cost of installing and operating new monitoring stations, geostatistical techniques can assist the Chesapeake Bay Program in the identification of suitable data collection locations. Following the evaluation, selection, and development of the software components phase, 3D ordinary kriging techniques with directional semi‐variograms to account for anisotropy were successfully demonstrated for mapping 3D fixed station water‐quality data, such as dissolved oxygen and salinity. Additionally, an improved delineation tool was implemented to simulate the upper and lower pycnocline boundary surfaces allowing the segregation of the interpolated 3D data into three separate zones for a better characterization of the pycnocline layer.     

Evaluation of Rio Grande Management Alternatives Using a Surface‐Water/Ground‐Water Model1

Abstract: Previous investigations observed significant seepage losses from the Rio Grande to the shallow aquifer between Socorro and San Antonio, New Mexico. High‐resolution telescopic modeling was used along a 10‐km reach of the Rio Grande and associated drains and canals to evaluate several management alternatives aimed at improving river conveyance efficiency. Observed data consisted of ground‐water and surface‐water elevations, seepage rates along the Rio Grande and associated canals and drains, and borehole geology. Model calibration was achieved by adjusting hydraulic conductivity and specific storage until the output matched observed data. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the system was responsive to changes in hydrogeologic properties, especially when such alterations increased vertical connectivity between layers. The calibrated model predicted that removal of the low flow conveyance channel, a major channel draining the valley, would not only decrease river seepage by 67%, but also decrease total flow through the reach by 75%. The decreased flow through the reach would result in increased water logging and an average increase in ground‐water elevations of 1.21 meter. Simulations of the system with reduced riparian evapotranspiration rates or a relocated river channel also predicted decreased river seepage, but to a much lesser degree.     

LAND SUBSIDENCE: AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT. Land subsidence due to groundwater overdraft has been assumed to be one of Arizona's major water related problems. This paper investigates the premise from an economic point of view and concludes that in the case of Arizona the physical fact of land subsidence has little or no economic significance.     

OPTIMAL WATER USE AND SALINITY CONTROL FOR ENERGY - UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The Upper Colorado River Basin contains appreciable amounts of undeveloped fuel resources. Large quantities of oil shale, coal, and uranium have attracted recent economic and commercial interests. Development of these resources and subsequent conversion to alternative energy forms require an adequate supply of water. Water use for large scale energy development will place increasing demands on an already overstressed allocation of Colorado River water. Present water quality is at a concentration where increased salinity will result in economic detriments to holders of downstream water rights. The salt and water exchange in mining, processing, and spent fuel disposal processes has been incorporated as part of a two-level minimum cost linear programming algorithm. Mathematical simulation results provide an optimal use of Upper Colorado River water for levels of energy output such that salinity concentrations are maintained below predetermined levels.     

LEAST COST SOLUTIONS TO THE PROBLEM OF EFFLUENT ABATEMENT IN URBAN SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: There is a significant misallocation of resources in the construction and operation of municipal sewage treatment systems in North America. Central to this misallocation is the inadequate evaluation of alternative treatment technologies, alternative distributions of responsibility for waste treatment, and alternative mechanisms for inducing compliance with treatment system requirements. Perverse incentives in the current institutional structure limit the scope of alternatives examined by decisionmakers. Determination of the least cost solution to the problem of urban effluent abatement requires mathematical modeling for the delineation of optimal treatment strategies on a system wide basis. The adoption of modern methods of systems analysis can identify significant opportunities for the reduction of economic waste in the treatment of municipal sewage.     

FORESTED WETLANDS IN EASTERN CONNECTICUT: THEIR TRANSITION ZONES AND DELINEATION1

ABSTRACT: The delineation of inland wetlands requires close field examination of the biological and physical gradients (transition zones) between wetlands and bordering uplands. As part of a study on the detection and delineation of inland wetlands in eastern Connecticut by remote sensing techniques, this effort was designed to investigate vegetation distribution and composition and selected physical and chemical properties of the soils of wetland to upland transition zones in deciduous wetland forests. Field research was conducted during the growing season of 1975 within a test area consisting of the 45 mi² Town of Mansfield, Connecticut. Changes in vegetation composition and structure, soil pH, and soil water content were determined along line transects extended over wetland to upland transition zones. Differences in soil pH occurred along the transects but were of such magnitude that they probably have little impact on plant distribution. There were significant changes in soil water content along the wetland to upland gradients. Discriminant analysis applied to statistical “index of abundance” data describing vegetation distribution among the various zones (wetland, transition, upland) showed which plant species best distinguish wetlands from uplands. Of the criteria studied, vegetation composition and distribution, soil water content, and relief are the most useful criteria for delineating deciduous wetland forests.